Alcaraz vs Sinner
Madrid Open · Quarter-Final · Clay · Currently in play
Carlos Alcaraz
#2 · Spain
6
Set 1
Win probability
68%
Jannik Sinner
#1 · Italy
4
Set 1
Win probability
32%
Why Alcaraz is favored
Clay mastery
Alcaraz is 14–2 on clay this season (87.5%), the highest win rate on the ATP. Against Sinner specifically, he leads 4–2 on clay with all meetings going his way.
Recent form advantage
Last 10 clay matches: Alcaraz 9–1 (90%) vs Sinner 6–3 (67%). Alcaraz's return depth is +11% this season on slower courts.
H2H pattern
In the last 5 years on clay, Alcaraz has won every set where he breaks serve first. Sinner's first-serve percentage drops 8% on clay vs hard courts.
Sinner's path back
Serve hold risk
If Sinner can hold serve more consistently, he reduces the breakpoint frequency. Currently: Alcaraz break 38%, Sinner break 22%.